A re-entry, three scenarios and a recalculation

Veronika (2023-174F), Slovakia’s third satellite, re-entered the atmosphere on 15 August 2025.

We delivered an end-of-life analysis for the satellite’s owner in November 2024. It put the re-entry at 4 June 2025 under strong space weather and 8 October 2025 under average conditions.

With solar activity running high in early 2025, recalculations moved the expected end of life to mid-August 2025. Veronika re-entered on 15 August 2025.

That is the point of running scenarios rather than one date, and of re-running them when the weather moves: the spread in the answer comes from the weather, not from the method. A single date would have looked more confident and told the owner less.

One analysis, re-run as the weather changed, checked against a real re-entry. What the offer is, and what arrives in it, is on the Orbit Decay Report.

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